Adjusting to Reality at Thanksgiving
It was startling. I now subscribe to the Owl – the economist’s update from ATB. Todd and company send out very Alberta specific overviews. http://www.atb.com/learn/economics/Pages/subscribe-to-the-owl.aspx.
Now economics are like atmospherics – climate is what you expect, weather is what you get. So economics are the big picture, your actual transactions are your experience.
But this data was staggering. If you think Alberta is resilient, you’re right. After the oil price drop, this province has held its head up.
Remarkable in the face of what actually was taken out. Oil and gas gross receipts dropped 39% in 2015 and a further 11.4% in 2016. Ouch! Imagine your family income was cut in half. That’s the magnitude of adjustment required in some businesses – and they’re making it. We’ve been here before – not that long ago oil was $12!
The occasion of the newsletter was to give thanks for our farmers who have generated a 7% uptick in 2016.
But there is other data – surprisingly, the real estate resale market has remained strong. Houses sell fast – well, not quite as fast, but considering ….
Sale to Active Listing Ratio: 26% vs. 36% in 2016. Sales to New Listing Ratio: 49% vs. 57% in 2016 . Current Active Home Listings: 3,479 – 23% higher than 2016. Average Days on Market ): 42 vs. 42 days in 2016
Months of detached home listing inventory: 3.8 vs. 3.0 in 2016
September 2017 Median Home Price: $482,000 – 1.6% lower vs. 2016
September 2017 Average Home Price: $556,372 – 1.3% lower vs. 2016
September 2017 Benchmark Home Price: $508,900 – 1.1% higher vs. 2016
Y.T.D. Benchmark Home Price: $505,400 – 0.6% higher vs. 2016
[data: JoeSamson.com]
And restaurants, always a good barometer of the optimism of Calgarians, are full, busy, vibrant.
Oh, I could dwell on Energy East. But I won’t.
This day, every day, we can be grateful. For having come through, for making our way. And as we quietly [hopefully en famille] digest our turkey, we can be thankful for our continuing life in this most blessed – and resilient – of provinces.
Sincerely,
Doug Bouey
Catalyst Strategic Consultants Ltd.
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